Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

The 2-year/10-year Bund spread closed the week at a positive 0.194%, a change from 0.105% last week. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the maximum probability of a return to negative spreads ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...