The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

Following the jobs report on Friday that showed job creation had deteriorated from “decent” to “weak,” yields dropped across the board, except for the 30-year yield, which ticked up. Yields are now ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

The longest inverted yield curve on record may finally be in the rearview mirror. The yield on the 2-year note closed at 3.651%, according to Tradeweb, lower than the 10-year yield, which settled at 3 ...

Labor-market worries are driving the yield on the two-year Treasury note slightly below the 10-year yield, threatening a run that stretches back to mid-2022. An inverted yield curve, in which ...

The inverted yield curve, an age-old recession indicator that has been flashing since July 2022, is proving reluctant to go away. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was higher than the yield on ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...