A decrease in oil supply drives up oil prices, which can raise unemployment and inflation. To counter adverse effects on ...

Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial ...

The Center for Pacific Basin Studies (CPBS) organizes the Asia Economic Policy Conference (AEPC) series and the Pacific Basin Research Conference series in alternating years. The AEPC is the flagship ...

Since 1974, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has conducted an active Pacific Basin program to promote cooperation among central banks in the region and enhance public understanding of major ...

To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Inflation has climbed since 2021, as the labor market has tightened. Two historical data relationships can account for elevated inflation over the past two years: the Beveridge curve, which relates ...

Global supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic have increased the costs of trade between countries. Given the interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with the rest of the world, higher ...

The 2021 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) finds that the COVID-19 pandemic has continued to affect the way U.S. consumers use and hold cash. The share of payments made in cash dropped sharply ...

The ability of the Treasury yield curve to predict future recessions has recently received a great deal of public attention. An inversion of the yield curve—when short-term interest rates are higher ...

The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...

The Federal Reserve has typically used a short-term interest rate as the policy tool for achieving its macroeconomic goals. However, with short-term rates constrained near zero for much of the past ...